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Tesla Inc


Wall street consensus:

## Tesla Inc (TSLA) - Consensus Sell-Side Research Summary

### Consolidated View on Performance
The collective assessment from Morgan Stanley's array of reports presents a nuanced view of Tesla Inc's performance into 2024. While acknowledging immediate challenges in the EV market due to demand deceleration and an oversupply issue, there is a generally optimistic outlook buoyed by Tesla's strategic shifts towards AI and robotics, potential in data advantage in autonomous vehicles, and diversification beyond its core auto business. Despite a mix of cautious and bullish stances, Tesla's ventures into AI, technological innovation, strategic international collaborations, and robust data collection from its vast fleet are highlighted as significant avenues for growth. Price targets varied but trended around $320-$345, reflecting a tempered optimism amidst prevailing market challenges.

### Synthesis of Key Topics
- **Global EV Market Dynamics & Demand:** Reports point to an oversupply in the EV market and shifting consumer preferences, with Tesla making strategic price cuts and facing stiff competition, particularly from hybrids and emerging EV manufacturers like BYD. Governmental policies, especially in China and the US, alongside Tesla's operational strategies to navigate these, play a critical role in its market positioning.
- **AI and Technological Innovations:** Tesla's push into AI, particularly through ventures like Optimus and advancements in autonomous vehicles supported by its data advantage, is a consistent theme. Tesla's capacity to innovate and lead in technology is seen as a pivotal growth driver, despite the need for significant capital expenditure.
- **Regulatory and Geopolitical Landscape:** Changing regulatory environments, trade policies, and government incentives for EVs, particularly in the US and China, are recurrent considerations. The impact of these on Tesla's operations, especially its supply chain, EV adoption, and market strategy, is underscored across reports.

### Future Investment Considerations Compiled
1. **AI and Robotics Ventures:** Tesla's advancements in AI and robotics, including Optimus and potential contributions from Dojo, represent key areas for future growth, potentially redefining the company's market position.
2. **Geopolitical and Regulatory Impacts:** Investors must keenly observe global trade relations, regulatory changes, and government incentives, which directly influence Tesla's market access, cost structure, and competitive edge.
3. **Technological Innovation and Competitive Positioning:** Tesla's continued innovation, especially in autonomous vehicles and battery technology, and its strategic response to competition and market dynamics, are pivotal. Its ability to refresh its product lineup amidst rising competition (e.g., hybrids, BYD) and maintain its technological leadership will determine long-term success.
4. **Market Expansion and Diversification:** Expanding beyond traditional auto sales into services, energy, and potentially lucrative AI applications, while navigating the market's shifting demand and competitive landscape, could offer Tesla diverse revenue streams.
5. **Regulatory and Market Adoption for AI and Robotics:** The pace of regulatory approval and market acceptance of AI-driven technologies, particularly in autonomous vehicles and robotics, poses both opportunities and risks for Tesla's innovation-led growth strategies.

In conclusion, while Tesla faces near-term challenges related to market dynamics and regulatory environments, its strategic investments in AI, robotics, data collection, and technological innovation position it for potential long-term growth. Investors are advised to weigh the immediate market pressures against Tesla's robust innovation pipeline and diversification efforts.


​Recent Conference Call

1. **Insightful Quote by CFO Vaibhav Taneja:**
"In terms of our 2023 financials, we ended the year with over $96 billion of revenue and generated $4.4 billion of free cash flow to end the year with over $29 billion of cash and investments on hand. Our 2023 GAAP net income was impacted by the recognition of onetime noncash benefit of $5.9 billion from the release of valuation allowance on certain deferred tax assets. This was due to our recent history of sustained profitability and is similar to several other companies who have recently gone through a similar change in their accounting."

2. **Three Key Quarterly Business Trends:**
- **Record Production and Deliveries:** Tesla achieved record production and deliveries of about 1.8 million vehicles in 2023, showing robust demand and efficient production capabilities.
- **Energy Storage Business Growth:** The Energy Storage business delivered nearly 15 gigawatt-hours of batteries, compared to 6.5 gigawatt-hours the year before, indicating significant growth in this segment.
- **Free Cash Flow and High Capital Expenditure:** Despite a challenging macro environment with high interest rates and inflation, Tesla maintained strong free cash flow ($4.4 billion) while investing heavily in future projects.

3. **Three Critical Analyst Questions:**
- **Question about 4680 Cells Production:** Analysts inquired about the progress and expected timeline for ramping up 4680 cell production. Tesla's team explained that they are ahead of the Cybertruck ramp with current 4680 production and highlighted the complexity and revolutionary aspects of these cells.
- **AI and Robotics Expansion:** Elon Musk discussed Tesla's approach to AI and robotics, stressing his commitment to ensuring adequate control and safety measures in advancing these technologies.
- **Financial Impact of Tax Changes:** Analysts sought clarity on the impact of tax changes following Tesla's recognition of deferred tax assets. The CFO explained that there would be no immediate cash impact but a change in how taxes are accrued on the books.

4. **Outlook and Guidance:**
- For 2024, Tesla is focusing on launching its next-generation vehicle, energy storage expansion, full self-driving, and other projects. While the volume growth rate in 2024 might be lower due to focus on new initiatives, the company expects to lay the foundation for future growth. They also mentioned the importance of increasing efficiency in AI inference, which is key to their full self-driving technology. The company is balancing innovation with financial prudence, as evidenced by their significant capital expenditures planned for 2024 (exceeding $10 billion).

Overall, Tesla demonstrated strong performance and strategic positioning for future growth, despite facing challenges like high interest rates and global economic uncertainty. The company's focus on innovation in manufacturing and AI technology, along with a strong cash position, positions it well for upcoming market opportunities and challenges.

Key Questions to follow

Given the thematic investment tag of 'Inflation, Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Vehicles, and Investing' and the provided document summaries detailing Tesla Inc. (TSLA), here are three insightful questions focusing on the company's potential for future growth within the context of the thematic tag:

1. **How will Tesla's strategic investments in AI and autonomous vehicles position the company to mitigate the impacts of inflation?** Considering the insights from the reports, which highlight Tesla's venture into AI technologies and the development of autonomous vehicles, there is a dual-fold curiosity. Firstly, how Tesla's focus on AI and advancements in autonomous vehicles could drive cost efficiencies and maintain growth amidst broader economic pressures, particularly inflation. Secondly, the question seeks to understand the potential for these technological advancements to create new revenue streams or enhance value propositions in existing markets, which might offset inflationary pressures or even capitalize on inflation-induced market shifts.

2. **In the context of a challenging economic environment marked by inflation and supply chain disruptions, how resilient is Tesla's strategy of diversifying supply chains and investing in autonomous and AI technologies?** This question delves into the effectiveness of Tesla’s strategic decisions, from the establishment of a Gigafactory in Monterrey to mitigate supply chain challenges, to its AI and autonomous vehicle initiatives like Optimus and Dojo. It interrogates the robustness of these strategies in maintaining or even enhancing Tesla's market dominance in the electric vehicle sector, despite potential economic headwinds. It also explores how these strategies might safeguard Tesla's margins and profitability.

3. **Given the stated challenges around global EV supply and demand imbalances, regulatory environments, and the evolving technological landscape, how well-equipped is Tesla to navigate these complexities, particularly with its focus on AI and autonomous vehicles?** This broader inquiry focuses on Tesla's strategic agility and operational effectiveness in addressing the anticipated global supply and demand challenges in the EV market, navigating changing regulatory frameworks, and continuing to innovate in AI and autonomous driving technologies. Specifically, it aims to probe Tesla’s capacity to leverage its technological advancements and market strategies to sustain its growth momentum and competitive edge in an increasingly complex global landscape.

These questions are constructed to explore Tesla's strategic positioning and future growth potential in light of the thematic investment tag, drawing on the insights provided from the sell-side research report summaries. They aim to pinpoint areas of strategic importance, potential risks, and opportunities for Tesla as it navigates the intertwined pathways of inflation, artificial intelligence, autonomous vehicles, and investing.

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